Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 197.365250 242.024890 298.225634 375.639420 481.967794 6.267692e+02 8.461243e+02
2025-01-19 142.351866 190.721381 259.672381 369.762756 550.915289 8.579971e+02 1.474254e+03
2025-01-26 122.562975 175.739627 259.399070 410.675644 704.079039 1.323597e+03 3.042047e+03
2025-02-02 108.179215 163.341047 257.072136 444.839184 865.768949 1.965244e+03 6.362475e+03
2025-02-09 96.777500 152.276344 252.688353 472.153427 1032.942433 2.841593e+03 1.399418e+04
2025-02-16 86.902915 141.333008 244.983240 488.854693 1189.259180 3.965372e+03 3.280699e+04
2025-02-23 78.653117 131.511862 236.653438 500.581481 1344.879308 5.465415e+03 9.007394e+04
2025-03-02 70.011568 119.347793 220.547007 486.762848 1410.493488 6.755756e+03 2.394169e+05
2025-03-09 62.934219 109.084573 206.313355 472.933835 1469.688947 8.293330e+03 8.654817e+05
2025-03-16 56.575055 99.332718 191.309235 451.964988 1487.538957 9.697739e+03 4.563272e+06
2025-03-23 55.240242 99.610261 199.307144 502.477764 1882.416938 1.765696e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 51.779860 94.891306 194.382862 510.643195 2085.450013 2.583915e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 49.185257 91.904944 193.743005 535.779884 2449.617359 4.620809e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 45.339488 85.665978 183.615350 523.420118 2565.649719 6.530853e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 44.661547 86.482683 192.394705 588.040997 3412.442511 2.167815e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 43.525818 86.059577 197.718064 643.147851 4390.655238 1.048654e+06 NaN
2025-05-04 42.087468 84.701593 200.076122 687.791127 5480.150790 1.376301e+07 NaN
2025-05-11 40.318660 82.293630 198.791835 715.317039 6530.114947 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 38.520066 79.585258 196.045817 734.744270 7625.342755 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 36.066793 74.939496 186.300587 711.858206 7871.862127 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 33.848677 70.688828 177.190853 689.066357 8084.668178 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 31.628598 66.232824 166.761550 654.722883 7937.227273 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 31.552689 67.377412 175.190776 737.893081 11552.135817 NaN NaN